BURBERRY : Corporate Contact: Key Takeaways

Research evidence excerpt

BURBERRY : Corporate Contact: Key Takeaways

reater magnitude than anticipated by the

market; retail productivity improving; leather goods taking off significantly; takeover

speculation or action; weaker GBP.

To the downside:

Luxury Goods is a cyclical sector. Macroeconomic deterioration brings subdued trading

conditions for luxury goods players. Luxury goods companies face a "double whammy"

as lower sales growth (or even worse, negative sales growth) brings operating

deleverage, given the high fixed cost nature of the industry. Lower sales growth and

operating deleverage compound multiple compression. Luxury goods sales and share

price performance suffer from travel disruption. The travel retail market is important for

luxury goods - the bulk of luxury goods products are bought by people abroad - given

the significant price gaps between markets (both structural and FX-related) and the

relatively "high ticket" nature of these purchases. Events such as war, terrorist attacks,

and epidemics would negatively affect the luxury sector. Stock-specific risks include (i)

green shoots recently seen of a Burberry turnaround not translating into a full-fledged

brand turnaround, (ii) failure to improve sales densities and (iii) a potential change in

designer being taken negatively by the market.

Burberry ADR (Outperform, Target Price USD19)

Investment case

In Nov 2024, new CEO Schulman delivered a clear strategic message, acknowledging

Burberry had moved too far from its core, pursuing modern luxury rather than heritage.

New brand codes were unfamiliar to existing customers, seasonal fashion was too

much, and brand elevation through leather goods pricing was not aligned with brand

BNP Paribas Research Burberry / Burberry Adr 23 JUNE 2026 page 2