Novartis AG: Pelacarsen: expecting positive headline results

Research evidence excerpt

Novartis AG: Pelacarsen: expecting positive headline results

Idea

June 25, 2026 10:07 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MNovartis AG | Europe Thibault Boutherin

Equity Analyst

Pelacarsen: expecting positive Thibault.Boutherin@morganstanley.comSarita Kapila +44 20 7425-9688

Sarita.Kapila@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-1320

headline results Gizel Askin

Research Associate

Gizel.Askin@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-3286

We assume a 75% PoS of pelacarsen achieving a statistically Adithya Venkat

significant CV risk reduction for at least one of the co-primary Research Associate

Adithya.Venkat@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-2216

endpoint of the HORIZON trial, which should lead NOVN to

outperform. However, clinical relevance & commercial potential Novartis AG (NOVN.S, NOVN SW)

ADRNVS.N

depend on full data and readacross from competition. Pharmaceuticals | Switzerland

Stock Rating Overweight

Key Takeaways IndustryPrice targetView SFr 135.00In-Line

Shr price, close (Jun 24, 2026) SFr 124.34

The Pelacarsen P3 HORIZON trial in patient with established CVD and elevated 52-Week Range SFr 131.00- 91.20

Lp(a) will readout in coming weeks and is the first of a series of key catalysts Mkt cap, curr (mn) US$299,365

Fiscal Year Ending 12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

Based on P2 data, we believe pelacarsen is likely to achieve 70-80% Lp(a)

Revenue, net (US$ mn) 54,532 56,489 60,186 64,754

reduction in HORIZON, corresponding to a median Lp(a) reduction of 76-86mg/ EBITDA (US$ mn)** 23,116 22,793 25,298 27,917

dL EBIT (US$ mn)** 21,889 21,494 23,492 25,974

EPS (US$)** 8.98 8.72 9.81 11.10

Mendelian randomization analyses and pre-specified analyses from PCSK9 trials ModelWare EPS (US$) 8.91 8.64 9.72 11.01

Prior EPS (US$)** - - - -