South Africa Economics: 3Q26 Macro Slide Deck

Research evidence excerpt

South Africa Economics: 3Q26 Macro Slide Deck

R M B M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H

South Africa Economics

3Q26 Macro Slide Deck

Valuation Methodology and Risks

Trade Date Entry Level Target Stop Rationale Risks

South Africa rates reflect a gap between market pricing (~75bp hikes) and our lower baseline of another 25bp, with risks driven by SARB hikes more than expected with SA 1y1y-2y2y steepener 10-Jun-26 3 50 -20 inflation uncertainty and global rate dynamics.We see front end steepeners (1y1y–2y2y) as attractive, given asymmetric upside from oil, no fiscal risks politics, and FX risks

History of recommendations

Definitions of terms

Buy/Long: The analyst expects the total or excess return (depending on the nature of the recommendation) of the instrument or issuer that is the subject of the investment

recommendation to be positive over the relevant time period.

Sell/Short: The analyst expects the total or excess return (depending on the nature of the recommendation) of the instrument or issuer that is the subject of the investment

recommendation to be negative over the relevant time period.

Selling protection or Buying Risk: The analyst expects that the price of protection against the event occurring will decrease over the relevant time period.

Buying protection or Selling Risk: The analyst expects the price of protection against the event occurring will increase over the relevant time period.

Pay: The analyst expects that over the specified time period the variable rate underlying the swap agreement that is the subject of the investment recommendation will increase.

Receive: The analyst expects that over the specified time period the variable rate underlying the swap agreement that is the subject of the investment recommendation will decrease.