China Equity Strategy Three-Channel Playbook: How a Hormuz Reopening Could Boost China Stocks

Research evidence excerpt

China Equity Strategy Three-Channel Playbook: How a Hormuz Reopening Could Boost China Stocks

ne inflation across both (86 21) 6106 6505

alex.yao@jpmorgan.com

developed and emerging economies, which in turn weakens the case for further

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rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. JPM Global Markets Strategy team notes that

J.P. Morgan Securities (China) Company

the 2026 median dots showed hikes from 9 out of 18 members (excluding Limited

Warsh) but were at the mercy of lingering uncertainty, vindicating JPM view of

a cautious and gradual Fed. JPM expects the Fed to stay behind the curve, i.e.

delivering enough hawkishness to support credibility, potentially even hiking

before year-end, but still endorsing a modest and gradual adjustment to policy

rates with limited damage to risk assets. For China's A-share market, a softer

Fed trajectory reduces the risk of capital outflows and eases domestic monetary

policy constraints, creating a more favorable liquidity environment for growth-

style equities. We believe the China AI ecosystem stands to benefit. JPM top

picks in the China AI ecosystem include Zhongji Innolight, Victory Giant-

H, JCET-A and Weichai-H in the global supply chain, and NAURA,

AMEC-A, Baidu, Zhipu and Iluvatar CoreX as localization plays.

• Decline in oil price: #2 tankers to benefit from inventory rebuilding. China

Industrials team views a durable Hormuz reopening as fundamentally bullish for

tanker equities, as it should normalize crude purchasing, shift buyers from

inventory drawdowns to inventory rebuilding, and support renewed seaborne

crude demand; while freight rates may moderate from disruption-driven peaks,

lingering routing inefficiencies, fleet redeployment delays, and insurance