Rexel SA: 2Q preview: raising ests on Copper/M&A; wary of what's priced in

Research evidence excerpt

Rexel SA: 2Q preview: raising ests on Copper/M&A; wary of what's priced in

Equity Research

European Capital Goods

24 June 2026

Rexel SA

2Q preview: raising ests on

Copper/M&A; wary of what's

RXL.PA/RXL FP UNDERWEIGHTpriced in

Unchanged

Inflation is coming through but it's not 2021...demand is European Capital Goods NEUTRAL

weaker, volumes are lower and competition fiercer. 2Q will Unchanged

likely evidence this, with prospects of a copper-related Price Target EURUnchanged29.00

organic growth guide increase without a change to margins. Price (22-Jun-26) EUR 38.38

Cons expects former, not latter, with valuation at 5yr high Potential Upside/Downside -24.4% Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

We think the stock is clearly priced for a raise to FY guidance but the market might not get Market Cap (EUR mn) 11398

everything it's looking for: Recent trends suggest management will have to raise FY26 organic Shares Outstanding (mn) 297.00

growth guidance. We think data centers, US Industrial Automation, solar and HVAC, Free Float (%) 98.82

representing combined ~20% of group grew double digit organic YoY in 2Q. Overlay this with 52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 0.7

copper prices which have largely remained ~$2.5k/t above the $11k/t embedded in Dividend Yield (%) 3.13

management's guide (every $500 increase in copper price typically equates to ~0.4% sales Return on Equity TTM (%) 10.75

increase) and it doesn't require a big leap of faith to assume the 3-5% organic growth guide is Current BVPS (EUR) 18.22

likely to increase, probably to 4-6%. Consensus is already there though and investor feedback Source: Bloomberg

suggests higher buyside expectations.

Price Performance Exchange-PA

The rest of the business, mostly construction, we think saw similar demand to 1Q (essentially