Global Economics & Strategy "Deep Speak: Kevin Warsh press conference" Amoruso

Research evidence excerpt

Global Economics & Strategy "Deep Speak: Kevin Warsh press conference" Amoruso

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Global Economics & Strategy Economics

GlobalDeep Speak: Kevin Warsh press conference

Elena Amoruso

Strategist

elena.amoruso@ubs.com

A new LLM-based tracker of central bank sentiment and thematic shifts +44-20-7567 0239

We developed an AI-based approach to measure policy tone for the Fed, ECB, and Arend Kapteyn

BoJ. Using LLMs, we analyze policy-relevant remarks in speeches, interviews and Economist

press conferences and score them on a hawkish/dovish scale, offering insights into arend.kapteyn@ubs.com

+44-20-7567 0531

sentiment shifts as well as thematic drivers and speakers' contributions. Updated

daily, the dataset spans over two decades and is accessible via an interactive Jonathan Pingle

dashboard and a Python API (>Access Dataset). Economist

jonathan.pingle@ubs.com

+1-212-713 2225

Chair Warsh said little, but virtually none of it read dovish

Kevin Warsh's first press conference will likely be remembered as much for what was

absent as for what was said (also, see here for our economists' assessment). Many of the

impressions that emerged in real time are borne out quantitatively by DeepSpeak. In

particular, the model identifies an unusually strong concentration of discussion around

institutional reviews and communication reform (Figure 1Taskforces,pricestabilityandlitleelse, Figure 7Anewcomunicationregimetokcentrestage, Figure 8 Themodel'scoremesage?"Wehaveataskforceforthat"), while

traditional policy topics accounted for only a small fraction of the overall conversation

(Figure 3Warshsaidverylitlethatmatersforpolicy; just 5% of remarks vs an average of ca. 25% under Chair Powell).