China Economic Perspectives "China Housing Survey: Regional Stabilization" Zhong

Research evidence excerpt

China Economic Perspectives "China Housing Survey: Regional Stabilization" Zhong

The 22nd wave of UBS Evidence Lab's China Housing Survey covers 2,500 respondents

across mainland China (April 8 - May 4, > Access Dataset ). Amid signs of market

sentiment improvement in recent months, how has market sentiment evolved? What

are respondents' expectations for property prices and home purchase intentions? Are

there meaningful divergences?

Home purchase intention edged up. The share of respondents planning to buy

property in the next two years edged up to 31%, from 30% in the November 2025

survey, stronger than April 2025 and above 2023-24 levels. However, this does not yet

point to a decisive demand recovery. The share saying they “never” want to buy

property rose to 40%, from 28% in November. Selling intentions also increased: 24% of

current homeowners plan to sell in the next one to two years, up from 17%. The

combination of stable buying intentions and higher selling intentions suggests better

turnover, but still-fragile net demand. In fact, high frequency data points to slowdown in

the growth momentum of property sales recently.

Policy is putting a floor for confidence, while overall sentiment remains

subdued. On a net basis, 5% of respondents reported greater confidence to buy

property than six months earlier, down from 9% in November 2025 but still better than

late-2023 and 2024 readings. The main sources of support were direct government

subsidies, lower mortgage rates, delivery assurances, and hukou relaxation. In particular,

Hukou relaxation has become more important than in previous surveys, cited by 21% of

respondents versus 16% in April, suggesting that eligibility and mobility reforms matter

for housing demand, echoing progress made over the past year.