Cameco Corporation "More nuclear support & AP1000 deployments" (Neutral) Eadie

Research evidence excerpt

Cameco Corporation "More nuclear support & AP1000 deployments" (Neutral) Eadie

shares. However, medium-long term 12/26E

further risks remain surrounding delivery & timelines given the wide array of valuations UBS Cons.

and estimates associated with its earnings profile. Q1 0.30 0.30

Q2E 0.41 0.38

What is the market pricing for Westinghouse? Q3E 0.29 0.36

While 'what’s priced in' remains difficult for Cameco, our analysis of consensus and Q4E 0.43 0.46

investor positioning suggests the market largely reflects currently contracted and 12/26E 1.43 1.63

selected reactors, but not the ~10 additional planned. As a result, we view incremental 12/27E 2.96 2.62

12/28E 3.70 3.05

reactor announcements as a clear positive catalyst for both earnings and valuation vs

consensus, albeit hard to quantify. This uncertainty is most evident in Westinghouse, George Eadie

which comprises ~35–50% of NAV: our base case (~C$40/sh) already embeds more Analyst

growth than the ~C$30/sh consensus, but rises to ~C$46/sh under top-end guidance george.eadie@ubs.com

inputs and ~C$50/sh if 7-8 additional reactors are included. Conversely, excluding the +1-646-996 4596

10 planned reactors and using low-end assumptions reduces NAV to ~C$32/sh, only Daniel Major

marginally above median consensus, underscoring the wide valuation dispersion from Analyst

wide assumptions. We see asymmetric upside, particularly given that consensus appears daniel.major@ubs.com

conservative on uranium optionality: the uranium segment is valued at ~C$24/sh based +44-20-7568 3472

on approved mine life at $90/lb, versus ~C$36/sh with modest extensions at $100/lb. Myles Allsop

With ~80% of inventory uncontracted and in-ground, we believe this underestimates Analyst