Off Grid Insights "Losses get redistributed, portfolios get hedged — CP4..."

Research evidence excerpt

Off Grid Insights "Losses get redistributed, portfolios get hedged — CP4..."

Global Research

23 June 2026ab

Off Grid Insights Equities

Latin AmericaLosses get redistributed, portfolios get hedged

— CP45/2019 is neutral in aggregate Utilities

Giuliano Ajeje

Analyst

giuliano.ajeje@ubs.com

Bottom line +55-11-2767 6371

The Board did not close CP 45 on 22-Jun, with Mosna's vista delaying the vote Henrique Simoes

despite a working majority. The core framework is effectively set: energy-reason Associate Analyst

curtailment sits with the generator, while reliability/transmission are socialised. henrique.simoes@ubs.com

What remains open is calibration — Block 2 and GHmin will define how losses are +55-11-2767 6308

distributed. Conceptually negative for renewables, as it raises required returns. At Julia Ongarato

the company level, companies with more hydro exposure benefit more than those Associate Analyst

focused on renewables. julia.ongarato@ubs.com

+55-11-2767 6694

CP45 doesn’t solve curtailment — it reallocates losses, with hydro appearing

better positioned under the current design

Here are our initial thoughts regarding CP45/2019. ANEEL's Board met yesterday

(22-Jun) in an extraordinary session to close Public Consultation 45/2019 on

curtailment, but Director Fernando Mosna requested a vista — after more than two

hours of the rapporteur reading her vote and 15 oral submissions — postponing the

final deliberation. CP 45 answers one question with money attached: when the

system operator (ONS) orders a plant off, who pays — the consumer or the

generator? Open since 2019 and through roughly seven years of debate, the

consultation sets the operating criteria by which the ONS reduces or limits

generation in the national grid (SIN), and - decisively - the accounting rule that