Chemicals (AO) | Chemical Matters - June 2026 Ifo data - from Recession to Downturn...

Research evidence excerpt

Chemicals (AO) | Chemical Matters - June 2026 Ifo data - from Recession to Downturn...

Connecting the dots

Release date: 25 June 2026

Christian Faitz, CFA

Co-Head of Chemicals

+49 69 756 96 147

Chemicals cfaitz@keplercheuvreux.com

Europe

Chemical Matters - June 2026 Ifo data - from Recession to Downturn...

Key points:

Chemical sector Ifo data for June 2026 showed clearly improving trends. Both current business conditions as well as expectations

have improved (month-on-month). Amongst the nine accessible data series for the chemical sector, in fact only three trended

negative - demand, order income, and price expectations.

Our proprietary ChemIndex, a broader measure of operating health for the (traditional) chemical sector, has likewise improved

per June - moving above the 100 points threshold again.

For sure, the Iran conflict both had (and still has) its challenges, but also opportunities for Europe-based chemicals. While

demand destruction might still be a theme building out in H2 2026, looking beyond this the sector is set for profitable growth

again. Our Sector Most Preferred Stocks remain Bayer (especially after today's SCOTUS news), and K+S .

Chemical Sector Ifo data in June 2026 - by and large improving vs May

Current business conditions moved back into positive territory at 3 points (from -5 in May). This is indeed the first time we have

seen positive business conditions since June 2024. As a reminder, "+3" means that there were (in a statistical normal distribution)

3% more positive than negative answers pertaining to (in this case) the question whether business conditions have improved,

were unchanged, or deteriorated. Business expectations moved up to (still negative) -27 points - yet much better than the -37

points we had seen in May.