Trigano (1K) | Buy | Q3 miss on deliveries, demand remains solid

Research evidence excerpt

Trigano (1K) | Buy | Q3 miss on deliveries, demand remains solid

tional pressure across

the sector.

Cash generation and capital allocation: Cash generation remains exceptionally strong, with

net cash reaching a new record level, around EUR50m above the previous peak. Following the

repurchase of 300,000 shares for c.EUR46m, management confirmed that buybacks will

continue during Q4. No decision has yet been taken regarding the cancellation of repurchased

shares. The group reiterated that its strong balance sheet remains a key strategic asset and

provides flexibility for both shareholder returns and potential external growth opportunities.

We trim our adj. EPS estimates by c.4% over FY 2026-28E

We are adjusting our FY 2026-28E forecasts following the weaker-than-expected Q3 sales

performance and the slower recovery of delayed motorhome deliveries. While management

remains confident that the unfinished vehicles will ultimately be delivered, we adopt a more

cautious stance on the timing of the recovery and maintain conservative assumptions for the

remainder of FY26.

Based on the updated assumptions, we lower our FY 2026E-28E sales estimates by 2%-3%,

reflecting the Q3 shortfall and a more gradual normalisation of production and deliveries. We

now expect sales growth of 4.4% in FY26E, 4.1% in FY27E and 3.7% in FY28E.

For profitability, we reduce our adj. EBIT estimates by 5% in FY26E, 4% in FY27E and 3% in

FY28E. The revisions mainly reflect lower volumes and a more cautious assumption regarding

the pace of backlog recovery, partly offset by the group's pricing actions and favourable product

mix.

Overall, these changes result in adj. EPS downgrades of 5% in FY26E, 4% in FY27E and 3% in

FY28E. We also reduce our FCF forecasts by 17% in FY26E, reflecting the temporary working