Edenred (AO) | Buy | H1 26 preview, still robust despite regulation impacts

Research evidence excerpt

Edenred (AO) | Buy | H1 26 preview, still robust despite regulation impacts

#EarningsPreview #Positive

Release date: 25 June 2026

Julien Richer, CFA

Equity Research Analyst

+33 1 70 39 74 98

jricher@keplercheuvreux.com

BuyEdenred

France | Travel & leisure MCap: EUR5.3bn

Target Price: EUR28.00 Bloomberg: EDEN FP Reuters: EDEN.PA

Current Price: EUR22.32 Free float 100%

Up/downside: 25.4% Avg. daily volume (EURm) 40.7

YTD abs performance 18.0% Market data: 24 June 2026

52-week high/low (EUR) 27.37/15.38

H1 26 preview, still robust despite regulation impacts

Key points:

Edenred will release its H1 results on 23 July pre-market. Our model is based on a EUR1,450m revenue over the period (up 1.9%

LFL) and a total group EBITDA of EUR597m.

We expect the company to confirm its robust underlying operating revenue LFL performance, but reported numbers to be

impacted by the changes in regulation (Italy and Brazil). Focus will be on i) the oil price impact on growth in Q2; ii) the underlying

operating EBITDA margin evolution; iii) the expected ramp-up of the second part of the Brazilian regulation in H2 26.

We do not expect Edenred to revise its guidance upward, even though the interoperability implementation in Brazil might be

slower than expected, which advocates for the high end of the range. We confirm our Buy rating (attractive valuation, robust

underlying growth, positive contribution from inflation and higher interest rates, healthy balance sheet).

Reporting date 23 July 2026

Conference call 23 July (morning)

Dial in number NC

Table 1:2026 operating performance estimates

EURm Q1 25 Q2 25 Q3 25 Q4 25 FY25 Q1 26 Q2 26E (KC) Q2 26 (CSS) H1 26E (KC) H1 26E (CSS) FY 26E FY26E (CSS)

Benefits & Engagement 432 435 426 469 1,763 446 435 427 881 870 1,784 1,737