Tryg (1K) | Hold (Not Rated) | Defensive by nature

Research evidence excerpt

Tryg (1K) | Hold (Not Rated) | Defensive by nature

j. adj. (m) 4,4329.84 5,61910.27 6,10811.12

exposure to Scandinavian non-life insurance markets and strong market EPS reported 7.10 9.13 9.98

positions across Denmark, Sweden, and Norway. Consensus EPS 8.72 9.39 9.96

na na na▪Tryg combines strong underwriting profitability with one of the most NewgrowthBus.(%)CSM

conservative investment portfolios in the sector, supporting resilient earnings Combined ratio (%) 83.6% 80.9% 80.4%

and low balance sheet volatility. Solvency II/SST (%) 191.9% 186.9% 185.1%

Deconstructing the forecasts ROE after tax (%) 12.0% 15.8% 17.4%

▪We see the insurance service result growing from DKK7.9bn in 2025 to DKK9.2bn FY to 31/12 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E

in 2028E, supported by pricing discipline and stable underwriting margins. P/E (x) 21.1 16.4 15.0

P/BV 2.5 2.5 2.6

▪Our estimates remain broadly aligned with management targets, with a 2028E P/NAV 20.8 22.4 26.5

combined ratio of 80.4% versus the group's 81% target. DPS 8.60 9.00 9.50

Dividend yld (%) 5.7% 6.0% 6.3%

▪Our estimates incorporate the DKK1.2bn Danish workers' compensation charge Financial leverage (%) 13.4% 13.6% 13.8%

recognised in 2026, which temporarily distorts reported profitability but does not

Sector Most Pref. Sector Least Pref.

alter the group's underlying earnings trajectory or capital return framework. Allianz Legal & General

Valuation and investment conclusion Prudential

▪Tryg trades on 14.7x 2027E adjusted P/E and offers a 7.1% 2027E total Batikan Kaya

shareholder yield. Equity Research Analyst +44 207 621 5148

▪We expect the group to remain among the most capital-efficient insurers in Fahad Changazi

Europe, supported by its strong underwriting performance and conservative Equity Research Analyst

investment portfolio.