Medtech & services (360) | Opportunity amid uncertainty

Research evidence excerpt

Medtech & services (360) | Opportunity amid uncertainty

a detailed assessment of the key trends shaping the IVD

industry and of the competitive landscape, with a particular focus on molecular

diagnostics. We continue to view molecular testing as one of the most attractive

areas in the sector, driven by the growing adoption of syndromic testing.

▪ 2026 is likely to remain challenging, with low-single-digit sales growth. Beyond 2026,

we assume a sales CAGR of c. 5–6% in 2027-30E, below both the medium-term

ambitions outlined at the 2024 CMD and historical growth rates of 6–8%. However,

we think the recent de-rating has been excessive, particularly given our view that

2026 will likely mark the earnings trough and that growth should recover towards

mid- to high-single-digit levels as the sector moves beyond the current headwinds.

▪ We continue to view Diagnostics as a defensive industry with attractive structural

growth characteristics and a proven track record of long-term value creation,

having delivered high-single-digit revenue and EPS growth since 2010.

Valuation

▪ BioMérieux (Buy, TP EUR85): Our most preferred stock, BioMérieux, combines

leadership in microbiology with a dominant position in syndromic molecular

diagnostics through Biofire, supported by one of the largest installed bases in the

industry. Following a weak respiratory season and one of the sharpest de-ratings

in the sector, we believe the risk/reward is particularly attractive, offering the best

combination of quality, growth, and valuation in our coverage.

▪ DiaSorin (Buy, TP EUR76): We view DiaSorin as offering the strongest medium-

term growth outlook in our coverage. We believe the market continues to

underestimate the potential of its molecular portfolio, which positions the