Oil Weekly #90: Are we there yet?

Research evidence excerpt

Oil Weekly #90: Are we there yet?

Global Majors

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

Refiners

Oil Weekly #90: Are we there yet? June 21, 2026

Exhibit 1 - BBG vs.

The Wolfe Byte Actuals (mbbls)

Crude StocksOur oil weekly focuses on issues we see of most significance to the sector outlook, Est (3,692)

Actual (8,263)anchored on EIA weekly data as the only 'real time' monitor on the health of oil Diff (4,571)

& refining markets. EstDistillate Stocks (485)

Actual 951

Diff 1,436

Gasoline Stocks

Est (759)

Actual (906)Issue of the week: After the strong recovery at the start of the year that benefited Diff (147)

from factor rotation, sector performance for the broader XLE has drifted vs a software EstUtilization 95.3%

sector that has recovered ~8% since 3/1. The challenge we see for energy investors is ActualDiff 96.7%1.4%

that with the exhausting back and forth in the Strait of Hormuz, charting a constructive Source: Wolfe Research, EIA

path from here is hard without confidence in a structural reset in long-dated prices -

where we see the timeline being pushed out. On the contrary, while we expect spot

prices to carry the volatility of Iran–US headlines on who controls the Strait of Hormuz,

a path of least resistance that is normalization of oil flows remains a headwind to near

term sector performance. Doug Leggate

dleggate@wolferesearch.com

The key question we have asked since the start of the conflict is, 'what is the incentive (832) 810-9915

for investors to re-up investment vs the broader market when the confluence of sector View Doug’s Research

rotation and commodity upside risk has already played out'? This has been the basis of View Comp Table

our ‘fade not follow’ characterization of sector positioning – specifically anchored on John Abbott