The Weekly Chu: 2026 DFAST Results

Research evidence excerpt

The Weekly Chu: 2026 DFAST Results

Brokers, Asset Managers & Exchanges

The Weekly Chu: 2026 DFAST Results June 21, 2026

Week of June 22nd, 2026

Weekly Intro: DFAST and Furious. There was no shortage of news flow in the

holiday-shortened week with the Iran agreement, SPCX IPO, and Warsh’s coming

out party driving significant performance dispersion across our covered names. The

standout performers this week were the Universals and Retail Brokers, with HOOD / Steven Chubak, CFA

schubak@wolferesearch.com

IBKR leading the pack, followed by GS / MS, as the SPCX IPO drove more bullish (646) 582-9315

sentiment on both retail engagement and the IPO spigot reopening (HOOD also View Steven’s Research

announced a 10% RIF this week). The laggards this week consisted largely of the View Comp Table

Alts. and Regional Banks – both of which reacted poorly to hawkish Fed commentary. Sharon Leung

sleung@wolferesearch.com

As investors prepare for preview season, the modeling discussions have been focused (646) 582-9317

on: 1) Deposit competition / rate impacts given higher for longer; 2) Capital Markets Derek Gonda

strength and better / (worse) positioned firms when accounting for mix; and 3) dgonda@wolferesearch.com (646) 582-9326

Equity market sensitivity given >15% seq. gains in 2Q for the S&P. We expect both

buy and sell-side estimates will be revised higher with fee momentum the biggest

driver of EPS upside, even if expenses prove stickier given stronger growth in more

compensable revenues. But we will have more to say regarding the EPS setup(s) over

the next couple of weeks.

Where investors appear to be struggling is reconciling bifurcated performance

between perceived AI winners and laggards as the gap continues to widen, with AI /