The Roth Report: 2026 Macro Manual for Your Summer Interns (or You)

Research evidence excerpt

The Roth Report: 2026 Macro Manual for Your Summer Interns (or You)

June 21, 2026

How do markets follow the Fed?

The most important Fed event is the FOMC meeting, which takes place roughly every six weeks. Following the meeting,

the Fed releases a statement and, in most cases, the Chair holds a press conference to discuss the decision and answer

questions from the media. Chair Warsh has indicated he may not hold a press conference after every meeting going

forward. In the statement, policymakers review economic conditions and announce their policy decision. Historically,

the statement has also provided some indication of how policymakers view the outlook for future policy. Under Chair

Warsh, the Fed is expected to place less emphasis on this type of forward guidance, preferring to avoid signaling a

predetermined path for interest rates and instead retain the flexibility to respond to changing economic conditions.

The press conference builds from the statement and is intended to represent the collective views of the FOMC members.

This segment tends to be market moving as the Chair gives more insight into the Committee’s decision. Three weeks

after the FOMC, the Minutes are released. These give a more detailed record of what members discussed about the

economy, monetary policy, and market conditions.

Since 2012, the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) has been released quarterly alongside the FOMC statement.

The SEP contains participants' forecasts for economic growth, inflation, unemployment, and interest rates. The most

closely watched component is the “dot plot,” which shows each participant’s projection for the appropriate level of the

Federal Funds rate over the next several years and in the longer run. Chair Warsh has long expressed skepticism about