Carnival Corporation: 2Q26 first take: net yields cut more than expected on Middle East conflict

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Carnival Corporation: 2Q26 first take: net yields cut more than expected on Middle East conflict

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Carnival Corporation

2Q26 first take: net yields cut more than

expected on Middle East conflict

Maintain Rating: BUY | PO: 45.00 USD | Price: 30.19 USD

2026 net yield outlook cut 100bps 23 June 2026

CCL cut its 2026 constant-currency net yield outlook to +1.75% from +2.75% given the Equity

transitory impact from the conflict in the Middle East. Given that CCL had last guided in

Andrew G. Didora, CFA

late March, one month into the conflict, we had thought there was conservatism in the Research Analyst

prior outlook to reflect further bookings risk, while our sense of investor expectations BofAS andrew.didora@bofa.com

was for a modest 2H26 net yield cut. The new outlook is surprising. However, CCL noted

John Gellene, CFA

that the booking trend is showing signs of reversing, which we think creates less Research Analyst

estimate risk from here as bookings recover. Comments on this recovery will be BofAS john.gellene@bofa.com

important for this morning’s earnings call. We maintain our Buy rating.

2Q26 shows typical beat; net yields better by just 20bps

CCL’s 2Q26 constant-currency net yields grew +2.2%, slightly better than the +2.0% Stock Data

guide, with net cruise costs ex-fuel growth of flat vs the +2.6% outlook driving an Price 30.19 USD

earnings beat. EPS of $0.41 beat guidance of $0.34 and the Street at $0.33, with Price Objective 45.00 USD

EBITDA ahead of guidance by +8%. Date Established 12-Jan-2026

3Q26 net yields miss by roughly 150bps Investment52-Week RangeOpinion 22.58 USD - 34.03C-1-9USD

The 2026 net yield guide down is seen in the 3Q26 outlook, with constant-currency net Mrkt Val (mn) / Shares Out 41,830 USD / 1,385.6