Antero Resources: Firm Transport Optimization Drives Organic Margin Expansion

Research evidence excerpt

Antero Resources: Firm Transport Optimization Drives Organic Margin Expansion

Equity Research

U.S. Integrated Oil & E&P

23 June 2026

Antero Resources

Firm Transport Optimization

Drives Organic Margin Expansion

AR outlines ~$0.70/Mcfe cost reduction and ~$0.35/Mcfe AR EQUAL WEIGHT

margin improvement by YE2028 vs. 2025, driven by FT roll- Unchanged

offs/optimization and growing dry gas exposure, U.S. Integrated Oil & E&P UnchangedPOSITIVE

underpinned by a structural shift in Appalachia from supply Price Target USD 45.00

push to demand pull. Estimate increases are weighted to raised 5% from USD 43.00

2028+, raise PT to $45. Price (23-Jun-26) USD 34.53 Potential Upside/Downside +30.3%

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

In its latest investor presentation, AR provided a new long-term outlook targeting ~$0.70/

Mcfe reduction in cash costs to ~$2.00/Mcfe with a ~$0.35/Mcfe EBITDX margin expansion Market Cap (USD mn) 10698

by year-end 2028 vs. 2025 levels. Excluding the previously disclosed $0.15/Mcfe margin Shares Outstanding (mn) 309.84

improvement from HG Energy integration, AR is targeting another $300MM of margin Free Float (%) 93.60

enhancement by year-end 2028. The cost reduction over the next 3 years is steeper than what 52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 5.3

we had previously anticipated and is primarily driven by ~$210MM of liquids and natural gas Dividend Yield (%) N/A

firm transport (FT) optimization. While the timing is tied to contract expirations, our discussion Return on Equity TTM (%) 12.59

with the company suggests incremental opportunity to optimize the FT portfolio even ahead of Current BVPS (USD) 26.02

scheduled roll-offs. Source: Bloomberg

The update highlights the structural shift under way in Appalachia as the basin moves Price Performance Exchange-NYSE