UCB "H1'26 preview - 3 steps to forecast Bimzelx" (Buy) Deng

Research evidence excerpt

UCB "H1'26 preview - 3 steps to forecast Bimzelx" (Buy) Deng

ons.

contribution (UBSe 5%) as one major PBM did not cover Bimzelx in HS at the beginning 12/26E 10.29 10.45 2 10.64

of 2026. Our sensitivity analysis shows, even assuming 0 medical exemption 12/27E 13.94 13.21 -5 13.33

contribution, our Bimzelx H1'26 forecast would have been just 2% below our base case. 12/28E 17.81 15.76 -11 16.19

We like UCB's recent acquisition of Neurona Xian Deng, PhD, CFA

Analyst

We take the opportunity to add Neurona and Candid acquisitions in our model. In xian.deng@ubs.com

particular, we find the stem cell therapy NRTX-1001 from Neurona highly interesting, as +44-20-7901 6285

this provides a P3 ready asset with highly encouraging P1/2 data in drug resistant mesial

Nusrat Hossaintemporal lobe epilepsy (MTLE). This disease has high unmet need with ca 300,000

Associate Analyst

patients in the US alone. Just a few % of peak penetration assuming typical cell therapy nusrat.hossain@ubs.com

price could lead to $1bn+ sales potential. +44-20-7883 1586

Matthew Weston, PhD

Changes to model

We have updated FX and increased near/mid-term R&D spend following recent matthew.weston@ubs.com

acquisitions. We have increased Bimzelx near-term forecasts but cut Rystiggo/Zilbrysq +44-20-7567 4055

numbers modestly given rising competition. We lower our to EUR320 (from EUR330).

Valuation:

Our UCB price target is derived from 50/50 blend of SOTP and PE-relative. The SOTP is

the sum of DCF-derived NPV for all assets.

Navigation: H1'26 forecast summary, Bimzelx EU TRx analysis, Neurona overview

Highlights (€m) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E

Revenues 5,252 6,152 7,741 8,634 9,843 10,983 12,157 13,212

EBIT (UBS) 657 836 2,009 2,159 2,705 3,188 3,826 4,444