Nordea (1K) | Buy | Q2 preview: Firmer quarter, Buy reiterated

Research evidence excerpt

Nordea (1K) | Buy | Q2 preview: Firmer quarter, Buy reiterated

9.23 EPS adj. 1.44 1.59 1.69

pressure in Norway. We do not expect any impact from the recent Norwegian rate Consensus EPS 1.44 1.55 1.66

hike, given the eight-week notification period. We expect NCI to increase 3% QOQ

FY to 31/12 (EUR) 12/26E 12/27E 12/28Eand come in 2% ahead of consensus, driven by higher AUM after supportive equity P/E adj. and fully diluted(x) 11.4 10.3 9.7

markets and semi-annual fees. P/BV (x) 1.7 1.6 1.5

We forecast a 2026E cost-to-income ratio of 45%, excluding regulatory fees and P/TBV (x) 2.0 1.9 1.8

Dividend yield 6.0% 10.0% 6.2%

the Q1 restructuring charge, in line with management’s expectations, which we RoTBV 17.4% 18.8% 18.9%

found credible following the Q1 call. For Q2, this implies stable underlying costs RoE after tax 15.1% 16.2% 16.4%

QOQ, the unwind of the EUR190m Q1 restructuring charge, and lower regulatory CET 1 ratio 15.6% 15.5% 15.6%

fees, partly offset by a EUR10m Riksbanken charge. Cost income ratio 46.8% 43.9% 43.4%

Net NPL ratio (on loans) 0.6% 0.6% 0.6%

We expect credit losses of 6bp in the quarter, still well below the company’s 10bp

Sector Most Pref. Sector Least Pref.

medium-term guidance. We view this as justified given i) low realised credit losses Barclays Banco BPM

in recent years despite the sharp increase in rates, and ii) the fact that Raiffeisen Bank International CaixaBank

management overlays reinforced regular provisions in Q1.We expect a new Santander Svenska Handelsbanken

EUR250m buyback for Q3, alongside a semi-annual DPS of EUR0.34. We forecast a

CET1 ratio of 15.5% in the quarter, including a modest regulatory headwind of 10-

15bp.

Deconstructing the forecasts

We lower our 2026-28E EPS forecasts by c.1%, reflecting slightly lower income