DHL Group (AO) | Buy | FedEx Q4 read-across: positive

Research evidence excerpt

DHL Group (AO) | Buy | FedEx Q4 read-across: positive

News comment

Release date: 24 June 2026

Marc Zeck, CFA

Equity Research Analyst

+ 49 69 7569 6323

mzeck@keplercheuvreux.com

BuyDHL Group

Germany | Transport Logistics Beta Profile: MCap: EUR56.9bn

Target Price: EUR60.00 Bloomberg: DHL GR Reuters: DHLn.DE

Current Price: EUR51.06 Free float 83%

Up/downside: 17.5% Avg. daily volume (EURm) 191.2

YTD abs performance 9.3% Market data: 23 June 2026

52-week high/low (EUR) 52.96/37.05

FedEx Q4 read-across: positive

Key points:

We believe FedEx Q4 results suggest positive business momentum at DHL. While the FedEx group results were better than

expected, restructuring exercises muddled the picture somewhat. Crucially, this is of no concern to DHL.

What matters, though, is the performance of FedEx International Export. Here, we see better-than-expected results in revenues

thanks to stronger volumes and prices. This is what matters to DHL.

FedEx Q4 results analysis

FedEx Q4 was better than expected, with the beat driven by revenue quality. Group revenue reached USD25.0bn, c. 4% above

consensus, while adjusted operating income of USD2.09bn was c. 4% above consensus and adjusted EPS of USD6.31 was c. 7%

ahead. The Federal Express segment delivered the important part of the beat, with management citing higher U.S. domestic and

International Priority package yields, transformation savings, and higher U.S. domestic and international export package

volumes, partly offset by purchased transportation, wages, incentive compensation and trade-policy impacts.

The cleanest surprise was in the international export package business, which is the most relevant read-across for DHL Express.

International Priority package revenue came in at USD2.64bn, c. 9% above consensus and +20% YOY.