FX Quant Insight: EURUSD’s summer blues

Research evidence excerpt

FX Quant Insight: EURUSD’s summer blues

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FX Quant Insight

EURUSD’s summer blues

Key takeaways 22 June 2026

G10 FX Strategy• Quant signals favor EURUSD downside into the summer

Global

• Option flow favor USD calls, event analysis trigger bearish EURUSD continuation,

technical setup reinforce downtrend Marcus Boman

FX Strategist

• Hawkish Fed, US data outperformance, and positive carry all support EURUSD bears MLI (UK)

+44 20 7996 3322

marcus.boman@bofa.com

FX Signal of the Week: Bearish EURUSD BrunoRates StrategistBraizinha, CFA

Exhibit 1: USD momentum is gathering strength BofAS +1 646 743 7012

Top signals from quant models bruno.braizinha@bofa.com

Section Insight Rationale Paul Ciana, CMT

Technical Strategist

Option Flow Bullish USD Option flow and skew moved in favor of USD calls BofAS

Technical Matrix Bullish USD USD is in an uptrend vs all its G10 peers +1 646 743 7014

CARS Equity factor Bullish JPY and EUR, bearish AUD and CAD on equity factor. paul.ciana@bofa.com

Time Zone US <3 USD All of the USD’s recent strength has occurred during US hours. Jonathan Hartley, CMT

EM FX Wait and see No strong signals have been triggered for EM this week. Technical Strategist

BofAS

Source: BofA Global Research +1 646 855 1236

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH jonathan.a.hartley@bofa.com

A pleasant summer for USD bulls See Team Page for List of Analysts

Last week, we cautioned against selling USD despite the US-Iran MoU (FX Quant Insight,

15 Jun ‘26). The clearly hawkish June FOMC meeting validated that call, and our quant

signals now favor chasing the breakout higher. Option flow and skew both shifted

For more details on the construction of the

toward USD calls following the meeting (Exhibit 2), while our event analysis framework

quant signals, please refer to the FX Quant