High Yield Energy: Energy Weekly

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High Yield Energy: Energy Weekly

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High Yield Energy

Energy Weekly

Rating Change - Credit

Lowering crude oil and TTF outlook post MOU 18 June 2026 Corrected

Our Commodity Strategy team lowered their crude oil and TTF forecast to reflect the High Yield Credit

signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between the US and Iran and the full United States

reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Their baseline forecast assumes a net oil deficit of Energy

2.6mn b/d for 2026 from +2mn b/d expected pre-war and a surplus of 1mn b/d in 2027.

Revised WTI Crude forecast is now $75/bbl in 3Q26 and $69/bbl in 4Q26 and $66/bbl in Table of Contents

2027, which is in-line with strip for 2H26 and below strip for 2027. Prices are supported

by restocking demand and cancelled projects in 1H26, among other factors. Notably, it is Sector Performance 2

unclear whether the arrangement will proceed smoothly. As we have highlighted all along Commodity Prices 3

the pace of the reopening of the Strait is key to the forecast. The global natural gas Relative Value & Comparable Company Information 4

forecast was lowered assuming 80% of pre-war Qatar production should resume in Company News 9

about 2 months. TTF pricing should be supported by a narrow European injection E&P Sensitivities 13

window in which to reach comfortable inventory levels for winter. 2027. TTF 2H26 Midstream Overview 14

forecast lowered to ~$16/MMBtu and 2027 TTF outlook is unchanged at ~$11/MMBtu. E&P Hedging Overview 15

2H26 remains above strip of ~$13.60 and 2027 is slightly below strip of $11.50/MMBtu.

See report: Global Energy Weekly: Oil gets the memo 17 June 2026. We update our E&P

forecasts to current strip pricing [Exhibit 19]. We expect all but one company to generate Gregg Brody