European Metals & Mining Weekly: BHP projects: Jansen. Vicuña. Metlen Gallium. MineSense = Precision mining.

Research evidence excerpt

European Metals & Mining Weekly: BHP projects: Jansen. Vicuña. Metlen Gallium. MineSense = Precision mining.

Price objective basis & risk

BHP Group Limited (BHPLF / BHP)

Our price objective of A$70/share (US$91/share) represents c. 1.25x our DCF-derived

NPV. Our DCF is based on BofA commodity price forecasts and assumes a 9% discount

rate. Diversified miners traded in a range of 0.6-1.3x NPV over the last five years with

lower multiples paid during periods of economic slowdown and higher multiples paid

during periods of rising commodity prices and earnings.

Downside (upside) risks to our price objective are global economic slowdown (growth),

volatility in commodity prices, operational risks associated with mining, project

execution risk, currency pressures and mining cost inflation (deflation).

BHP Group Limited (ZBHPF)

Our price objective of 3410 GBp represents approximately 1.25x our DCF-derived NPV.

Our DCF is based on BofA commodity price forecasts and assumes a 9% discount rate.

Diversified miners have traded in a range of 0.6-1.3x NPV over the last 5 years with

Eramet (ERMAF)

Our price objective of EUR65 is based on c. 1x our multiple and discounted cash flow

(DCF)-derived SOTP valuation. Our multiples are set relative to peer metals and mining

companies with an adjustment to reflect our view on Eramet's capacity to deliver

operationally. Manganese 5.0x EBITDA, Mineral sands 5.0x EBITDA, Weda Bay project c.

1.0x net present value (NPV), Lithium 7.0x EBITDA. Our reference year is 2027E EBITDA

for multiple derived values. We adjust the attributable value by the company's ownership

stake.

Downside risks: Unstable political environment in Gabon. If the global demand for

commodities slows further, this will lead to lower metal prices which would drive lower

earnings.