Airlines: Monthly Scorecard: perfect storm of low capacity, falling fuel, strong demand

Research evidence excerpt

Airlines: Monthly Scorecard: perfect storm of low capacity, falling fuel, strong demand

ear (vs. +11.1% prior). The Airline Reporting Corporation’s Average Ticket Allegiant Travel Company: Updating

Price strengthened to +18.5% year-over-year in May, with economy fares (+20%) estimates post Sun Country deal

continuing to outpace premium (+14%) for the third consecutive month. Into June, BAC close; focus now turns to integration

aggregated credit and debit card data suggests momentum remains intact, with airline 02 June 2026

spending returning to double-digit growth, supported by strength in spend per

Cruise Lines: Cruise card spend

transaction. See the latest BofA on USA report for methodology, limitations, and

grows +8.4% in May 12 June 2026

disclaimers regarding BAC card data.

BofA on USA: May retail sales: May-

3Q26 capacity now flat; growth risk shifts to the Fall be we can keep spending 11 June

The domestic capacity backdrop has continued to moderate over the past month. 3Q26 2026

capacity is now tracking closer to flat (vs. +1.6% a month ago), with September growth Lodging: Weekly RevPAR: US +7%,

slowing to +1.1% from prior mid-single-digit growth. In our view, declining fuel costs EU +5%, APAC ex-China -1%, China

could encourage airlines to add back capacity in the fall, particularly given healthy +5%, MEA -30% 17 June 2026

demand trends. However, we note Spirit’s recent cessation of operations, negative

margins from low-cost carriers like JBLU and ULCC, and the industry’s deflationary Airlines: Year Ahead 2026

pricing over the last two decades could reduce this risk. It would be encouraging If

October/November capacity trended toward low-single digits over the coming months. Glossary on page 30

Comps get tougher into peak summer