FedEx: 10 Things About F4Q26: Complicated, but not thesis-changing

Research evidence excerpt

FedEx: 10 Things About F4Q26: Complicated, but not thesis-changing

Deutsche Bank

Research

Rating Company Date

Buy FedEx 24 June 2026

North America Reuters Bloomberg Rating Buy

United States FDX.N FDX US Price target (USD) 479.00 Price at 23 Jun 26 317.24

52-week range 411.78 – 217.10

Industrials

Airfreight & Surface Valuation & Risks

Transportation

10 Things About F4Q26: Complicated, but not

thesis-changing RichaResearchHarnain,AnalystCFA

+1-212-250-6285

1) Why the negative knee-jerk (FDX shares down 6% post-mkt)?

Megan Makini Heading into tonight’s print, investors had become accustomed to FDX pairing Research Associate

strong beats with tepid outlooks. F4Q flipped that script. FEC results beat overall, +1-212-2501458

but Express margins fell short of expectations, which we think explains the

negative post-close reaction. Fuel was a ~20 bps drag on Express profitability,

whereas we—and likely much of the Street—had expected higher fuel prices to

be a tailwind. The offset was a stronger-than-expected EPS outlook:

management is calling for y/y EPS growth to accelerate to 20% for the remainder

of calendar 2026, up from 4% in FQ4 and 11% over the prior four quarters. Ex-

Freight, we estimate EPS growth accelerates from the low-teens to 20%.

2) So how bad was the margin shortfall relative to our expectation?

While FDX reported overall adjusted EPS 6% ahead of sell-side, Express

operating profit was a more modest 3% beat; margins ex-business optimization,

spin-off, and impairment costs were 8.9%, in line with last year. That was below

our forecasted 10%, an estimate we found closely aligned with the latest Street

expectations heading into print. Management noted that fuel was a 20 bps drag

to margins, implying ex-fuel Express margins of 9.1%. Even on that basis,