Best Smidcap Ideas: Underappreciated Growth Story, Positioned For Upside

Research evidence excerpt

Best Smidcap Ideas: Underappreciated Growth Story, Positioned For Upside

TD Cowen Owlet

Global Research June 22, 2026

Near-Term Trends Appear On Track

Based on our fireside chat with management at TD Cowen's Consumer Conference on 6/2,

our take is that near-term trends remain consistent with what was communicated on the last

earnings call. Sell-through trends improved into 2Q (April >30% growth for key products), share

gains are continuing in the category, and underlying demand trends remain stable despite

macro noise. The company is conservatively managing retail sell-through assumptions and

focusing on key promotional events while improving non-promotional velocity. Prime Day

in June will be a key determinant of where 2Q shakes out as consumers have been delaying

purchases until big promotional events amidst macro uncertainty. We moderate our PT to $10

given the stock pull back but our PT still implies doubling the stock price from current levels.

Path To Increasing Consumer Adoption

We note OWLT's current penetration sits at ~11% of births vs. >20% in leading markets, implying

a clear growth opportunity. A key lever is converting high awareness into clearer value

understanding—especially around FDA differentiation. While brand awareness among new

parents is relatively very high, management sees a gap in consumer understanding of what

FDA clearance actually means (i.e., medical grade reliability vs. a “gadget”). Improving this

messaging is critical to increasing conversion rates, particularly as competitors remain largely

camera-based.

We also highlight OWLT is working to secure additional hospital partnerships, which will enable

more doctors to prescribe BabySat - the health care version of the Dream Sock - to babies out

of NICU.