TAL Education Group (TAL US) Buy: Takeaways from FY26 annual report

Research evidence excerpt

TAL Education Group (TAL US) Buy: Takeaways from FY26 annual report

utions ROE (%) 15.2 11.9 13.4 13.6

(which is likely to slow meaningfully in FY27e) and a lower offline capacity growth

52-WEEK PRICE (USD)

rate. We now forecast the topline to grow by 20% y-o-y in FY27. We keep margins

largely unchanged, as operating leverage and narrowing losses in smart learning 17.00

devices should continue to support margin improvement. After reflecting estimate 12.65

changes, our TP declines to USD15.40 from USD16.20. TAL is trading at 11x PE 8.30

against a 20% EPS CAGR during FY27e-29e. Stay Buy on attractive valuation. 06/25 12/25 06/26

Target price: 15.40 High: 12.91 Low: 9.15 Current: 9.19

Updates on share repurchase: TAL has ramped up buybacks in recent months, Source: LSEG IBES, HSBC estimates

repurchasing USD40.7m (c1.23m common shares) between 1 March and 5 June,

compared with USD8.5m in January–February. This equates to around 0.8% of its Charlotte Wei*

current market cap. TAL still has USD394m remaining under the current programme Analyst, Internet Research

The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

(c8% of market cap), although the authorisation is due to expire in July 2026. charlotte.wei@hsbc.com.hk

+852 2996 6539

Market share in smart learning devices: Based on Runto data, industry shipments

Charlene Liu*

increased by only 7% y-o-y in 2025, vs TAL’s +67% in FY26. TAL’s market share Head of Internet and Gaming Research, Asia Pacific

The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation

expanded from 12% in 2024 to 21% in 2025 (Exhibit 2). We anticipate it to continue Limited, Singapore Branch

outperforming the broader market, supported by its proprietary learning content and charlene.r.liu@hsbc.com.sg

+65 6658 0615

AI-enabled interactive features.

Lauren Cai*