Starmer resigns UK set for seventh PM in ten years

Research evidence excerpt

Starmer resigns UK set for seventh PM in ten years

Economics ● United Kingdom

22 June 2026

There are still questions, though: who will be the next Chancellor, and what policy changes might this lead to? Last week Ed Miliband

was the bookies’ favourite for the role, but his chances appear to have receded over the weekend, with union figures speaking out

against such an appointment. Other possible names include Peter Kyle, Wes Streeting and Pat McFadden. Mr Burnham has

expressed views on many policies over the years – and more recently in his by-election campaign. But a leadership race would

provide more clarity on a policy platform and allow Mr Burnham to claim at least some kind of mandate for delivering it.

Whoever fills the PM/Chancellor roles will inherit substantial challenges – both in the near term and long term. Data last Friday

showed that public borrowing in the first two months of the current fiscal year was GBP8.9bn above the same period last year and

GBP7.7bn above a path consistent with the OBR’s latest forecast. Further ahead, pressures on welfare spending and defence

spending are rising, while taxation and borrowing are both already historically high (see Fixing UK Fiscal Policy, 1 May 2025).

1. Andy By Conference? 2. Polls suggest Burnham is the preferred

candidate of Labour members

% Polymarket Odds of Andy Burnham being next UK PM % Preferred choice of leader if a Labour leadership contest

100 100 were to take place (%)

90 90 Andy Burnham

Angela Rayner 80 80

Ed Miliband 70 70

Yvette Cooper 60 60

Wes Streeting 50 50

Shabana Mahmood 40 40

Lucy Powell 30 30

Louise Haigh 20 20

Dale Vince 10 10

0 0 0 20 40 60 80 100

Apr May Jun First preference Second preference Third preference

Source: Bloomberg, Polymarket Source: Survation.