CENTRICA (+) : Corporate Contact: Key takeaways

Research evidence excerpt

CENTRICA (+) : Corporate Contact: Key takeaways

EQUITIES

UTILITIES & CLEAN ENERGY

CENTRICA OUTPERFORMPRICE* 173p  TARGET PRICE 220p (UPSIDE 27%)

FLASH NOTE

Corporate Contact: Key takeaways

22 JUNE 2026 Securities Research Report Production time: 16:02* (London time)

Research Analyst & Publishing Entities

Harry Wyburd BNP Paribas London Branch (+44) 203 430 8665 harry.wyburd@uk.bnpparibas.com

Centrica will report 1H26 results pre-market on Thursday 23 July. Ahead of the release we have spoken to the company;

we highlight there has been no change to company guidance.

Overall we think 1H numbers will prove consistent with the trading update the company made at its AGM in May, which

had rebased consensus expectations for FY EPS into the ~11.5p range. If our 1H estimates below prove correct, we

think the company will be on track to meet that level for the FY, which could provide some comfort after recent share

price weakness.

In terms of 1H numbers and phasing, we expect factors mentioned in the AGM statement will be relevant: Centrica said

in May that retail had been weak in Q1 due to warm weather – negatively impacting 1H – whereas infrastructure

(nuclear, upstream gas) should compensate, albeit with a 2H weighting due to higher nuclear output and unhedged

exposure to higher gas prices in the second half of the year. Therefore we expect 1H/2H phasing of EPS to be weaker

in 1H than it was last year. Relative to the ~11.5p FY expected landing point for consensus from our May note, our

estimates below would see Centrica doing ~55% of that, compared to a 63% fill rate on last year’s 1H25/FY25 actuals.

If the company provides comfort on the full year EPS outlook being unchanged vs. the AGM update in May, then we

think the market would take this in stride.