CRH (+) : Confirmed USD8.5bn acquisition of Arcosa

Research evidence excerpt

CRH (+) : Confirmed USD8.5bn acquisition of Arcosa

Refinitiv

Investment case, valuation and risks

CRH (Outperform, Target Price USD157)

Investment case

Overall sector top pick. It's an earnings compounder with plenty of M&A optionality and

scope to rerate as consistent outperformance closes the multiple gaps with US

pureplays.

Valuation methodology

Our TP assumes the stock trades on a 4.3% 2027e FCF yield discounted back a year

with a 10% cost of equity. Our target yield includes a 225bps premium for long-term

growth (strong pricing power, infrastructure, unique integrated solutions business model)

and a further 250bps premium for balance sheet & capital allocation. Management has

a track record of strong discipline and is creating value through portfolio recycling.

Risks

To the upside:

Rerating as the multiple gap closes with US pureplays / bitumen cost advantage driving

better asphalt & paving margins / further portfolio rotation / repeat or increased buybacks

/ accretive M&A / Ukraine ceasefire and or delivery on new stimulus packages / reshoring

and or a new multi-year US highways programme / visibility without any major overhaul

on EU carbon regulation / stronger European pricing / macro rebound.

To the downside:

US infrastructure not living up to the potential ahead of IIJA expiry in September / higher

than expected green capex / expensive or slowing M&A / increasing interest rates

impacting private construction demand / higher below the line items / weaker US cement

or downstream pricing / dovish EU decarbonisation legislation (diluting the medium-term

story) / reversal in EU cement prices / macro hard landing.

BNP Paribas Research Crh 22 JUNE 2026 page 2

lcecil1@tulane.edu Loren Cecil 06/28/26 05:04:52 PM Tulane University