Virtual Road Notes: Solid Earnings Trajectory and Dividend Safe; Reiterate OW

Research evidence excerpt

Virtual Road Notes: Solid Earnings Trajectory and Dividend Safe; Reiterate OW

C O M PA N Y N O T E

J u n e 2 2 , 2 0 2 6

Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) Overweight

CONCLUSION PRICE: US$13.30

Last week, we hosted virtual meetings between Co-CIO Mark Tecotzky, CFO JR Herlihy, TARGET: US$15.00

and institutional investors. The meetings focused on the macro, earnings trajectory, the ~100% of 1Q27E Book Value

dividend, and credit quality which has held in well broadly without meaningful opportunities

to buy distressed loans which EFC has capitalized on in past cycles. We remain Overweight Crispin Love

Director, Piper Sandler & Co.with the earnings trajectory solid and the dividend safe and while difficult to time, we believe 212 466-7938, crispin.love@psc.com

a dividend increase could be a positive catalyst over the next few quarters.

Ben Graham

Research Analyst, Piper Sandler & Co.

• Macro remains uncertain, but credit quality stable. Despite a 2026 backdrop defined 203 536-9198, ben.graham@psc.com

by persistent macro uncertainty—ranging from Iran-related geopolitical volatility to Changes Previous Current

inflation, rates, and spreads—Ellington Financial’s portfolio construction has been driven Rating — Overweight

by an ability to prepare for the unknown. Private capital demand for mortgages has Price Tgt — US$15.00

only increased as bond flows remain elevated and there has been a shift to private FY26E EPS — US$1.90

capital from Fannie and Freddie. Also in 2026, the Administration has been supportive FY27E EPS — US$1.91

of housing, but the appointment of Bill Pulte as Acting Director of National Intelligence 52-Week High / Low US$14.12 / US$11.28

will likely distract from housing policy over the near-term, making additional agency MBS Shares Out (mil) 124.6