Paychex Inc F4Q First Look: Continued PEO Strength Drives Beat; FY27 Guidance in Line with Expectations

Research evidence excerpt

Paychex Inc F4Q First Look: Continued PEO Strength Drives Beat; FY27 Guidance in Line with Expectations

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

24 June 2026

Paychex Inc Underweight

PAYX, PAYX US

F4Q First Look: Continued PEO Strength Drives Beat; Price (23 Jun 26):$97.99

FY27 Guidance in Line with Expectations

Payments, Processors & IT Services

PAYX’s F4Q headline results modestly beat our & consensus expectations, mostly Tien-tsin Huang, CFA AC

driven by continued outperformance in PEO (MS revenue was slightly below (1-212) 622-6632

expectations), with some help from float. FY27 guidance bracketed Street tien-tsin.huang@jpmorgan.com

estimates on revenue items, calling for MSD revenue growth, and slightly Brendan Biles

exceeded Street estimates on margins and profits, calling for HSD EPS growth. (1-212) 270-0880

Expected stock reaction pre-call: neutral to positive on solid top-line growth brendan.biles@jpmorgan.com

and better-than-expected profitability, acknowledging bulls may be disappointed Charles Pearce, CFA

on F4Q MS (including possibly Paycor contribution) and lack of upside to FY27 (1-212) 622-4368

charles.pearce@jpmchase.com

numbers. We look to the call for commentary around Paycor and modest MS J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

softness vs our expectations.

• FY27 Guidance Summary. Aligned with commentary from the F3Q call,

mgmt sees FY27 revenue and EPS increasing 5%-6% and 7%-9% y/y

respectively, bracketing Street and JPM estimates (midpoint ~50bps ahead of

our expectations on adj EPS, more in line on sales). Mgmt sees AOI margins

expanding ~80bps y/y to 44%, a touch ahead of expectations (JPMe/Street

43.4%/43.5%) and historical margin expansion (25-50bps annually).

• F4Q26 Results Summary. PEO growth of 9% was stable sequentially (~2pts