U.S. Equity Strategy: Upgrading Into Uncertainty: Raise S&P 500 PT to 7800, FY26 EPS to $337

Research evidence excerpt

U.S. Equity Strategy: Upgrading Into Uncertainty: Raise S&P 500 PT to 7800, FY26 EPS to $337

Equity Research

Equity Strategy

23 June 2026

U.S. Equity Strategy

Upgrading Into Uncertainty: Raise SIGNATURE

S&P 500 PT to 7800, FY26 EPS to

$337 U.S. Equity Strategy

Venu Krishna, CFA

Equities remain choppy as peace talks stop and start, and +1 212 526 7328

questions linger around AI spend, funding and monetization, venu.krishna@barclays.com

BCI, US

higher for longer rates, and consumer strength. We focus on

Rex Feng

the improving earnings outlook, taking our FY26 EPS to $337 + 1 212 526 6114

from $321, and our 2026 PT to 7800 from 7650. rex.feng@barclays.com BCI, US

Riddhiman Dass

• Macro regime remains complex, but the balance of risks still leans constructive. Labor +1 212 526 0850

data are strong enough to reduce recession risk, but also to push rate cuts further out. Input riddhiman.dass@barclays.com

costs are rising again, though not yet a growth shock large enough to derail the cycle. The BCI, US

equity bull case remains intact, but earnings and AI capex visibility must do more of the work Tianqi Feng

as Fed support fades and positioning is less able to absorb disappointment. +1 212 526 9179

tianqi.feng@barclays.com

• We raise our FY26 S&P 500 EPS estimate to $337 from $321, modestly below the Street's BCI, US

$341 and implying ~21% Y/Y growth from $279 in FY25. Tech earnings guidance and visibility

remains underpinned by expanding AI capex, reflationary pressure should support nominal

revenue growth, and the industrial side of the economy looks relatively supportive into 2027,

offsetting potential downside to consumer spending. We also introduce our FY27 EPS

estimate at $389 (+15% Y/Y), below the Street's $398.

• Our 2026 S&P 500 price target goes to 7800 from 7650.