European Chemical Distributors: It's 2021/22 all over again

Research evidence excerpt

European Chemical Distributors: It's 2021/22 all over again

ly chain tailwinds. We lean towards the former on two key

Potential Upside/Downside +29.6%

reasons. First, industry commentary – including feedback from our expert calls – points to Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

ongoing supply chain disruptions persisting through year-end, even under a benign geopolitical

scenario. Second, precedent from the last cycle suggests management may again under-guide:

during 2021–22, Brenntag consistently raised guidance through the year as market conditions European Chemicals & Ingredients

Anil Shenoyremained stronger for longer than initially expected, reflecting the difficulty in forecasting in

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disrupted markets.

anil.shenoy@barclays.com

Barclays, UK

In 2021, the company started the year with a full-year EBITDA outlook of €1.08–1.18bn (Q1), which

was raised to €1.16–1.26bn in Q2, and subsequently upgraded again to €1.26–1.32bn by Q3, as Alex Sloane

tight supply chains and strong pricing drove margin expansion. In 2022, Brenntag initially guided +44 (0)20 3555 0645

to a more normalized €1.45–1.55bn, confirmed in Q1, but following an exceptionally strong first alexander.sloane@barclays.com

half, the company delivered a step-change upgrade to €1.75–1.85bn by mid-year, which was then

maintained through Q2 and Q3 with expectations to reach the upper end. Katie Richards

+44 (0)20 3555 0315

Read-across to IMCD, Azelis and DKSH: Positive earnings revisions but stronger valuation kathryn.richards@barclays.com

re-rating potential: The Q2 print has clear positive read-across for IMCD, Azelis and DKSH Barclays, UK

(pure-play specialty chemical distributors), consistent with our prior expert call takeaways that Setu Sharda

+ 91 (0)22 6175 1934