KR - Discretion Is the Better Part of Valor—Targeted, Market-Centric Price Reductions Are Key to Share Gains; We Stay BUY-Rated With Lowered $71 Price Target

Research evidence excerpt

KR - Discretion Is the Better Part of Valor—Targeted, Market-Centric Price Reductions Are Key to Share Gains; We Stay BUY-Rated With Lowered $71 Price Target

June 21, 2026

John Heinbockel john.heinbockel@guggenheimpartners.com KR - Discretion Is the Better Part of Valor—Targeted,

212 381 4135 Market-Centric Price Reductions Are Key to Share

Steven Forbes, CFA, CPA

steven.forbes@guggenheimpartners.com Gains; We Stay BUY-Rated With Lowered $71 Price

212 381 4188 Target Julio Marquez

julio.marquez@guggenheimpartners.com

212 823 6605 Key Message: A measured, “pay as you go” price investment approach is, to us,

Jacob Nivasch preferable to front-loaded, re-set funded, and potentially disruptive aggression, but

jacob.nivasch@guggenheimpartners.com the adverse market reaction reflects a realization of the conventional supermarket

212 338 8837 model’s strategic limitations. CEO Greg Foran’s mid-May Bloomberg interview elevated

expectations around the speed and magnitude of price adjustments with a market-by- Max Horowitz

max.horowitz@guggenheimpartners.com market, multi-year timetable disappointing to some. It would optimize learnings and

212 518 9974 execution, resulting in sustainable share gains and margin expansion and supporting a

low-double digit TSR. 35 percentage points of relative S&P 500 underperformance since

March 6th has left the shares trading at 5.9x 2026E EBITDA—see Exhibit 1—a modest

level given the broad-based cultural and operational changes underway. We remain BUY-

KR BUY rated while lowering our price target to $71 from $78.

The Kroger Co. In-Line, Though Noisy, 1Q Print and 2026 Guide. The largely in-line 1Q operating results Sector: Food Retail and reaffirmation of all aspects of full-year guidance took a rightful back seat to the strategic