Colombia elections Abelardo wins; closer-than-expected result

Research evidence excerpt

Colombia elections Abelardo wins; closer-than-expected result

Multi-Asset ● Latin America

21 June 2026

Oil & gas implications

Lilyanna Yang, CFA Colombia crude supply x demand: from Colombia natgas supply x demand: from

Analyst, LatAm Oil & Gas, 2000 to 2030e, kbpd 2015 to 2035e, mcmpd

Utilities, Petrochems

HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. 40 stronger exposure 1,000

lilyanna.yang@us.hsbc.com to LNG imports

+1 212 525 0990 35

600 25

200 10 Sirius discovery

Other discoveries

0 5 Under development

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026e 2028e 2030e 0

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026e 2027e 2028e 2029e 2030e 2031e 2032e 2033e 2034e 2035e Production Consumption

Source: BP Statistical Review, Colombia's mining and energy planning unit, Rystad Source: Rystad Energy

Energy, HSBC

Positive changes ahead. Based on policy proposals, a de la Espriella victory could translate

into a new and market-friendlier energy policy similar to what was introduced by President Milei

in Argentina, wherein hydrocarbon production could be the root for economic growth and fiscal

stability with increased export revenues of crude/lower imports of gas. Such changes could be

possible with new oil & gas awards, a new oil tax regime to incentivize capex from domestic and

global players, the end of several tax disputes (on the imports of fuels, for example), and

support for fracking.

Low reserve life. The reserve life of crude for Colombia is only c7.5 years for proven 1P

reserves (1P = 90% probability of monetization) and 10-11 years for proven+probable (90- 50%

chance of monetization, respectively) commercial reserves, despite better than anticipated

reserve recovery of mature fields with secondary and tertiary techniques. For national oil