HOLN: Model Update

Research evidence excerpt

HOLN: Model Update

Holcim AG

CHF73 price target. Our multiples are in line with where we believe Holcim should trade relative to the European and US Heavy

Materials sector. Our CHF73 valuation is supportive of our Sector Perform rating.

Risks to rating and price target

Macroeconomic risks

We currently expect market conditions in Holcim's markets to be stable over the next 6 months with a slight recovery in the

following 6 months. Any significant deviation from this view such as peace in Ukraine, or a Liberation Day linked tariff-led slowdown

could lead to a change to our estimates, rating and price target.

Weather-related risks

The Heavy Side construction business and much of Holcim's operations are conducted outdoors. Therefore, erratic weather

patterns (flooding, hurricanes, droughts and wildfires), prolonged periods of rain and cold weather can significantly impact

production schedules, shipment cost, operational efficiency and profitability. Any combination of these factors could lead to a

reduction in our estimates.

Changes to building and climate regulations

Significant strengthening or weakening of climate action plans across Holcim's markets could lead to a change in our estimates,

rating and price target. If regulations are tightened there are upside risks as it may lead to increased demand for Holcim's

sustainable products. On the other hand, a relaxation of climate targets would reduce demand for these higher-margin products

and negatively impact our earnings estimates.

Significant M&A activity

We do not include significant M&A activity in our estimates. Were Holcim to dispose of significant assets or operations or complete

a major acquisition, our estimates would need to be updated and our rating and price target are likely to change.

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