Emirates NBD: Risk Reward Update

Research evidence excerpt

Emirates NBD: Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

RiskRisk RewardReward– Emirates- EmiratesNBD (ENBD.DU)NBD (ENBD.DU)

A multi-market growth story

PRICE TARGET AED 34.00 EQUAL-WEIGHT THESIS

Our price target is based on a residual income model, where we use ending book value of the ▪ENBD's loan growth is likely to be shaped

last completed year plus the present value of earnings in excess of cost of equity over our by growth in the UAE (market share gains in

five year outlook. We assume a 12.0% CoE, and a 4.0% growth in perpetuity. other emirates), Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey,

AED 34.00 and India. However the geopolitical

uncertainty limits clarity on the earnings

Consensus Price Target Distribution AED 27.00 AED 46.20 contribution from international

MS PT

capital impact from the acquisition ofSource: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates ▪The

RBL bank should be within the bank's

capacity and we see a low risk of a rights

issue. A dividend increase though is unlikely.

RISK REWARD CHART ▪ENBD has adequate liquidity and provision

buffers to navigate potential negative spill

over from geopolitical uncertainty

AED AEDAEDAED 44.00(+39.33%)44.0044.00(+39.33%)(+39.33%)

Consensus Rating Distribution

67% Overweight

AEDAEDAED 34.00(+7.66%)34.0034.00(+7.66%)(+7.66%)

AEDAEDAED 31.5831.5831.58 33% Equal-weight

30 0% Underweight

MS Rating

20 AEDAEDAED 24.00(-24.00%)24.0024.00(-24.00%)(-24.00%) Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

10 Risk Reward Themes

Pricing Power: Positive

Technology Diffusion: Positive

JUN '25 DEC '25 JUN '26 JUN '27 View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here

Key: Historical Stock Performance Current Stock Price Price Target

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

BULL CASE AED 44.00 BASE CASE AED 34.00 BEAR CASE AED 24.00