Global Economic Briefing: グローバル360

Research evidence excerpt

Global Economic Briefing: グローバル360

Global FoundationM

チャートで見る世界の主要国/地域の経済動向

図表1: The range for growth outcomes is broad — we 図表2: The risks to inflation across our scenarios are

model US driven growth upside scenarios and energy price skewed to the upside, being more sensitive to energy

driven downside scenarios prices than to US-led growth outcomes

Real GDP Growth: 2026 (4Q/4Q) across Alternative Scenarios Headline CPI: 2026 (4Q/4Q) across Alternative Scenarios

6.0 8.0

4.0 6.0

2.0 4.0

0.0 2.0

-2.0 0.0

US Euro Area Japan China EM ex China US Euro Area Japan China EM ex China

Baseline US Aggregate Demand Shock Baseline US Aggregate Demand Shock

US AI Productivity Boost Global Oil-Led Recession US AI Productivity Boost Global Oil-Led Recession

Permanent Oil Premium Regime Permanent Oil Premium Regime

出所: National Statistical Agencies, Morgan Stanley Research forecasts 出所: National Statistical Agencies, Morgan Stanley Research forecasts

図表3: We think tariffs pass through is nearly complete, 図表4: We expect the Fed on hold this year with two

and disinflation will allow the Fed to stay on hold this year cuts in 2027 — it would likely take an aggregate demand

shock for the Fed to deliver hike

0.80 PCE Inflation: Cumulative Tariff Pass-Through

0.70 5.000 US Policy Rate Path

0.60 Effect of tariffs on headline PCE (y/y, pp contribution) 4.500

0.50 0.62

Estimated total passthrough 4.000

0.40

3.500

0.30 Baseline

0.20 3.000 US Aggregate Demand Shock

0.10 2.500 US AI Productivity Boost

Global Oil-led Recession

0.00

2.000 Permanent Oil Premium Regime

1.500

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2QE 3QE 4QE 1QE 2QE 3QE 4QE

出所: BEA, BLS, Haver Analytics, Morgan Stanley Research forecasts

2025 2026 2027

出所: Fed, Haver Analytics, Morgan Stanley Research forecasts