U.S. Data Pulse: Manufacturing Surveys Remained Strong in June

Research evidence excerpt

U.S. Data Pulse: Manufacturing Surveys Remained Strong in June

UpdateM

S&P Manufacturing PMI Signals Continued Expansion

Manufacturing activity expanded in June, according to the S&P Global PMI. The June

manufacturing PMI was 55.7, up 0.6 points from the prior month. The headline increase

points to continued improvement in manufacturing momentum, driven mainly by rise in

new orders, stocks of purchases, and output.

Demand and production continued to be resilient: the output index rose 1.1 points to 57.7,

marking its thirteenth consecutive month in expansion. The new orders index increased 2.4

points to 57.5, pointing to strong and persistent demand.

Labor demand from manufacturers weakened meaningfully. The employment index fell

4.6 points to 47.

Supply chain & inventories: suppliers’ delivery times lengthened, falling 0.8 points to

40.6. This is the lowest reading since September 2022. The time taken to deliver inputs to

manufacturers has shown an overall deterioration since mid-2023, despite some

fluctuations. Stocks of purchases ticked up 3.0 points to 56.7, following increases in the

prior three months. We think this reflects stock building and attempts to secure supply

and prices, underscoring ongoing concerns around uncertainty in the Middle East.

Backlogs of work rose 3.4 points to 54.6. The index suggests a gradual recovery in the

manufacturing sector, with the quarterly average rising above 50 in 1Q26 for the first time

since 2023.

Prices: output and input prices both decelerated. The output price index fell 2.1 points to

61, and the input price index decreased 4.1 points to 71.2. The war in the Middle East has

raised global energy prices as well as uncertainty around the future price path, which has

led to a jump in input prices since March.