Taiwan: May Trade: Exports Beat, Orders Stay Elevated

Research evidence excerpt

Taiwan: May Trade: Exports Beat, Orders Stay Elevated

Update

June 23, 2026 02:49 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia LimitedMTaiwan | Asia Pacific Kathleen Oh

Chief Korea/Taiwan Economist

May Trade: Exports Beat, Kathleen.Oh@morganstanley.comMorgan Stanley India Company Private Limited +852 2848-7340

Priyan Mody

EconomistOrders Stay Elevated Priyan.Mody@morganstanley.com +91 22 6996-1855

Shreya Singh

May's trade print reinforced the AI-led export cycle amid strong Economist

Shreya.Singh@morganstanley.com +91 22 6995-1521

US demand and hyperscaler capex. Surging imports and elevated

order growth suggest a solid path ahead. Moderation in volume

terms reflects base effect. The broader semiconductor and AI

demand backdrop remains supportive.

Data: Following a stronger-than-expected May trade print, with exports rising

51.7%Y (we'd estimated 43.3%; consensus: 41.4%), export orders growth was still Exhibit 1 : Taiwan's customs trade and export

robust at 47.2%Y, suggesting that shipment momentum may remain solid because orders trends

underlying demand remains supported. Imports accelerated 54.9%Y, well above TaiwanActual trade dataPrevious(May month2026) MSe Consensus

Exports growth, %Y 51.7 39.0 43.3 41.4

expectations (our estimate: 32.1%; consensus: 39.7%), driven by strong electronics- ImportsTrade balance,growth,USD%Y bn 54.917.9 29.214.4 32.122.1 39.718.9

Export Orders growth, %Y 47.2 48.1 52.0 47.1

related imports and higher energy costs. The trade surplus widened to US$17.9bn

Source: Ministry of Finance, Haver, Morgan Stanley Research

from $14.4bn in April. By region, export orders remained strongest from the US

(63.9%Y); Hong Kong & Mainland China (37.5%) and Europe (48.7%) improved. By Exhibit 2 : Taiwan – export vs. import growth