Weir Group Attractive entry point despite H1 concerns; stay OW and increase PT to 3,800p

Research evidence excerpt

Weir Group Attractive entry point despite H1 concerns; stay OW and increase PT to 3,800p

(from Jun-27). Weir will

Ram S Mehta

report H1’26 results on 29 July. (91-22) 6157-3233

ram.mehta@jpmchase.com

• Pumps market share concerns overdone. Both FLSmidth and Metso pointed J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

to DD% growth in their respective pumps businesses at our Industrials

Conference last week, adding to the concern about Weir’s market share. Specialist Sales contact details:

However, FLS pointed to a broad market share gain rather than specifically on Sam Edmunds - Specialist Sales -

slurry pumps (which are more AM generative and core to Weir). While Metso European Industrials

pointed specifically to gains in slurry pumps, they remain a much smaller (44-20) 7742-8733

player and are growing from a low base. Importantly, Weir has improved its sam.edmunds@jpmorgan.com

trial win-rate from >75% conversion in 2022 to >90% in 2025, a datapoint to Style Exposure

support the strength of their offering. Ultimately as we enter a Mining upcycle,

we see room for all three players to see strong growth in the space. For Weir,

we increase our expectations of order growth to c.7% in both 2027 and 2028.

• H2 weighting well flagged. As we update our model, we tweak our

assumptions on the H1/H2 weighting as per company commentary. In our

discussions, we see the c.40/60 split on profit as well understood. We see the

risk/reward as positive, especially if the order print in H1 comes in better the

consensus expectations (c.1.1%).

• 2026 Guidance and JPMe. For 2026, management has guided “growth in

constant currency revenue, operating profit and operating margin”. The

Performance Excellence programme will contribute £30m to the expected

expansion in operating margins y/y.