Broadlines & Hardlines Retailing Nielsen Lateral: WMT/BJ Grocery Comps Implied Below Expectations Despite Tick-Up in Grocery Inflation

Research evidence excerpt

Broadlines & Hardlines Retailing Nielsen Lateral: WMT/BJ Grocery Comps Implied Below Expectations Despite Tick-Up in Grocery Inflation

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

23 June 2026

Broadlines & Hardlines Retailing

Nielsen Lateral: WMT/BJ Grocery Comps Implied

Below Expectations Despite Tick-Up in Grocery Inflation

Herein, we leverage NielsenIQ data (through 6/13) to examine real-time Retailing – Broadlines & Hardlines /

grocery trends in the mass and club channels and laterally examine potential Leisure

WMT and BJ comps. Recall, grocery represents ~60% of WMT’s US core comp Christopher Horvers, CFA AC

and ~85% of BJ’s annually. (1-212) 622-1316

christopher.horvers@jpmorgan.com

Two key takeaways: Christian Carlino, CFA

(1-212) 622-9145

christian.carlino@jpmorgan.com

(1) Nielsen-implied laterals for 2QTD suggest grocery comps below

Jolie Wassermanexpectations for both WMT and BJ; Chase credit card data confirms dicount

(1-212) 622-1961

channel slowdown. Our analysis points to grocery comps for the first 6 weeks of jolie.wasserman@jpmchase.com

the retail quarter trending below our WMT and BJ forecasts, implying +3.9% vs. J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

+5.2%e for WMT and +0.1% vs. +2.4%e for BJ. Digging deeper, Chase credit card

data indicates notable sequential deceleration in 2QTD for wholesale clubs/

discounter channel (-330 bps), with supermarkets (+10 bps). Source: JPMorgan Chase Bank, NA,

JPMC Index File 1.0, select Chase credit

(2) Grocery inflation accelerates QTD. Our proprietary measure of total grocery and debit card transaction data.

inflation registered +2.9% in 2QTD, ~30 bps above +2.6% in 1Q and ~80 bps

above +2.1% in 4Q. While comparisons suggest +2.7% inflation for all of 2Q (+10

bps sequentially), energy/input costs might drive higher levels.