Gaming Bi-Weekly Bookmaker Barometer: World Cup Edition

Research evidence excerpt

Gaming Bi-Weekly Bookmaker Barometer: World Cup Edition

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

23 June 2026

Gaming

Bi-Weekly Bookmaker Barometer: World Cup Edition

This note showcases our bi-weekly FIFA World Cup Bookmaker Barometer, a European Leisure, Hotels & Gaming

ACframework designed to interpret match results and understand their directional Estelle Weingrod

impact on bookmakers. The tracker turns each completed match into an intuitive (44-20) 7742-8502

signal of whether the outcome was more likely bookie-negative (i.e., the most estelle.weingrod@jpmorgan.com

probable pre-match result occurs) or positive (i.e., the most probable pre-match J.P. Morgan Securities plc

result does not occur), and assigns a comparable score that can be aggregated Karan Puri AC

across matchdays to indicate whether a slate likely favoured bettors or (44-20) 7742-8342

karan.puri@jpmorgan.com

bookmakers. For the purpose of this analysis, we assume publicly backed bets align J.P. Morgan Securities plc

with the most probable match result (home win, draw, or away win) implied by the

Avni Garg

pre-match market. This tracker is designed to assess directionality rather than (91-22) 6157-3431

provide bookmaker profit estimates – it does not capture parameters around avni.garg@jpmchase.com

actual stakes, parlays/accumulators, in-play, or prop markets, which will add some J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

variability to the bookies outcomes for each game.

Specialist Sales contact details:

• Week 2 (ongoing) continues to track bookie negative: Matches results in Olivia Petronilho - Specialist Sales -

week 2 appear unfavourable for bookmakers from a directional impact European Consumer

perspective. Our internal metric, BPS (Bookie Pain Score), is currently (44-20) 3493-3709