Pembina Pipeline Corp.: Steady growth ahead

Research evidence excerpt

Pembina Pipeline Corp.: Steady growth ahead

Barclays | Pembina Pipeline Corp.

• We look for 2Q26 Marketing & New Ventures adj. EBITDA of C$97mm vs. consensus'

C$111mm and 1Q26's C$188mm. Our estimate reflects softer q/q contribution in the

segment in line with usual seasonal patterns, though NGL pricing was still relatively favorable

during the quarter versus prior 2Q's.

Our FY26 estimate of C$539 reflects PPL's higher expectations for Marketing outlined during

1Q26 earnings. Last quarter, PPL raised total adj. EBITDA guidance by +C$175mm at the

midpoint, owing the expected increase largely to Marketing. At this point, because PPL has

hedged 90% of its frac exposure for 2Q and 3Q, where PPL lands within its total adj. EBITDA

guided range (C$4.35bn - C$4.55bn) will depend largely on how commodities trend into

4Q26.

• PPL continues to progress construction of Cedar LNG, both in terms of the LNG vessel

being built in South Korea and the onshore work. With the vessel now 50% complete, it has

now moved from dry to wet dock, representing a key milestone.

As previously announced, PPL has met its commitment of re-marketing its 1.5 mtpa of LNG

capacity, which highlights robust global demand for export capacity and the competitiveness

of Canadian LNG. Since then, the outlook for the project has been further bolstered by

significant disruptions to Qatar's LNG capacity. Most recently, yesterday, an incident related

to the start-up of operations at Ras Laffan resulted in an explosion at the Barzan local gas

supply facility. At this point, the extent of the damage to the facility is unclear though we

know multiple people were fatally injured.

• We also look for an update on the FID of Greenlight Phase 1, which PPL has said was

expected to reach FID in 2Q.