Carrefour: 1H results preview (due 23 July)

Research evidence excerpt

Carrefour: 1H results preview (due 23 July)

Barclays | Carrefour

Carrefour – Barclays key questions for management

• You plan to narrow the ~3.5–4% price index gap versus the market each year while expanding

French ROI margins. What annual price investment is embedded in your plan to achieve this?

• You plan to reach ~7,500 convenience stores across France and Spain by 2030, primarily via

franchise and lease management models. Can you clarify the economics of the franchisor-

franchisee model? What royalty rates or margin contribution does Carrefour retain from

convenience franchise revenue?

• Brazil’s ROI margin declined in 2025 amid ~15% interest rates, but you forecast improvement

in 2026 as macro conditions stabilise. How much of the anticipated Brazil margin rebound is

dependent on a macroeconomic recovery versus self-help measures, and what downside

scenarios have you considered?

• Following the divestiture of loss-making Italy and the announced sale of Romania, what is

your plan for the remaining non-core operations in Belgium, Poland, and Argentina? Will you

consider further market exits to maximise value if these businesses continue to

underperform, and do any market-specific factors affect the timing or feasibility of potential

disposals?

• You have disclosed a real estate portfolio valued at ~€14bn and an annual net contribution to

NFCF of €200–300m from real estate asset disposals. You have also committed to an annual

portfolio valuation. Can you provide more granularity on the nature and geography of the

planned disposals?

• You have committed to an additional return decided annually based on the financial situation

and outlook. What would prompt you to switch from special dividends to share buybacks for

returning surplus cash?