EU Pharma: Val sheet + Key publications

Research evidence excerpt

EU Pharma: Val sheet + Key publications

Barclays | EU Pharma

implications for our EU Pharma coverage, and include links to our takeaways notes, key

company conclusions and replay details.

Company Notes

Mid-Cap Pharma and Specialty

• Bayer AG: Best-case outcome for settlement as Judge Autrey remands case back to Missouri

state; we now see limited risk of delays to final decision (17/06/26): Missouri federal Judge

Autrey has remanded the class action settlement back to the Missouri state level. This returns

the case to the venue where it has already received preliminary approval, removing the risk of

delays from a Judge Chhabria review. We see this as a best-case outcome for Bayer.

• UCB SA: Strong Bimzelx Momentum Intact, but Growth Investments and Sparse Catalysts Drive

Downgrade to Equal Weight (15/06/26): Despite strong Bimzelx TRx slightly lifting our FY26E

sales, rising R&D/BD spend drives cuts to near-term EBITDA and EPS CAGR. With early-stage

M&A risk, limited catalysts to 2028 and rising HS competitor readout risks, upside looks

capped at current levels. Downgrade to Equal Weight, PT €300/sh.

Life Sciences

• Polypeptide Group AG: De-risked capacity ramp-ups imply FY26 guide upside + LBO scenario

analysis; Raise PT to CHF40/sh (16/06/26): Pre-1H26 (13 Aug), we raise our forecasts L-MSD% to

reflect improved asset utilisation, better phasing and margin upside. BARCe 1H26 rev/EBITDA

+3.5%/+66% vs limited BBG cons and we see scope for FY26 guide to tighten/rise. Exploring

LBO scenarios on speculated M&A. We raise PT to CHF40, remain OW.

Trackers

• Weekly US RX tracker: NOVO Obesity/ T2D, GALD Nemluvio and UCB Bimzelx (19/06/26)

• Monthly IQVIA Rx / Sales tracker (US + ex-US data) (18/06/26)

• GSK PLC: Launch Sales tracker (16/06/26)

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