Carrefour (AO) | Buy | H1 2026 preview: moderate sales growth, improved profitability

Research evidence excerpt

Carrefour (AO) | Buy | H1 2026 preview: moderate sales growth, improved profitability

#EarningsPreview

Release date: 23 June 2026

François Digard

Head of French Equity Research, Food retail & TIC analyst

+33 1 70 81 57 47

fdigard@keplercheuvreux.com

BuyCarrefour

France | Food retail Beta Profile: MCap: EUR11.9bn Country Top Picks

Target Price: EUR18.50 Bloomberg: CA FP Reuters: CARR.PA

Current Price: EUR16.10 Free float 86%

Up/downside: 14.9% Avg. daily volume (EURm) 67.7

YTD abs performance 13.1% Market data: 22 June 2026

52-week high/low (EUR) 17.45/11.75

H1 2026 preview: moderate sales growth, improved profitability

Key points:

Carrefour will publish its H1 2026 results on July 23 after the market closes.

In terms of sales, the base for Q2 2025 is quite high: it was indeed the best quarter for France and Spain last year. In Brazil, it

was only in the second half of Q2 that consumption began to slow down. We expect a L-f-L growth of +0.8% in Q2 2026 for

Carrefour core countries (France +0.6%, Spain +2.0%, Brazil +0.5%). In France, inflation has stabilized at a nearly zero rate during

the second quarter, a phenomenon largely attributed to the recent initiation of annual negotiations. Nevertheless, the current

heat wave poses considerable implications for grocery sales: while warm weather generally stimulates increased consumer

spending, excessively high temperatures may alter shopping behavior, leading customers to prefer convenience stores over

hypermarkets and dining establishments. This evolving scenario introduces a level of uncertainty into the Q2 financial outlook.

On the contrary, in terms of operating profit (ROI), H1 2025 represented a low point due to both one-time integration costs of

Cora and a negative exchange rate effect.